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Core concept12 min readCore

Position sizing: the only risk lever you fully control

You cannot control whether the next trade wins. You can control exactly how much it costs you when it loses. That asymmetry is the whole game.

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Updated
Feb 2026
Same edge, same trades — 1% risk survives, 5% risk destroys the account
1% risk per trade5% risk per tradeSolid line = median · Shaded band = 10th–90th percentileStarting capital

Each faint trail is one simulated future for this strategy. The bold line is the median — half of runs finished above it, half below. The shaded band spans the lucky 10th to unlucky 90th percentile, so an outcome inside the band was reasonable to expect; outside, less so.

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Position size, in one line
Size = (Balance × Risk%) ÷ (Stop distance × Value per unit)

Notice what is not in this formula: your conviction, the setup's "quality," or how sure you feel.

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